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Explaining Mobilization in the 2011 Middle East Uprisings
Abstract
The stunning transformations in Tunisia and Egypt during the winter of 2011 are inspiring analysts of Middle East politics to consider the mechanisms that enable rapid shifts in the balance of power between regimes and opposition forces. This paper takes a step back and considers slower and more subtle sources of change in the distribution of power among social actors, even as the structure of political systems remain intact. It does so through a focus on a phenomenon whose political consequences are often overlooked: international migration. Most research on migration focuses on its impact upon receiving rather than sending states. Among examinations of the latter, most consider outmigration’s effects on such desired outcomes as development, democracy, or social capital. This framing of the query highlights the question of whether emigration is beneficial for society in normative terms. Yet it fails to ask for whom emigration is beneficial in the sense of Realpolitik. Investigating the latter, I ask how emigration from a country affects changes in access to and struggles over power within that country. Under what conditions does it aid individuals and groups in their competition for influence or have the opposite effect? How is emigration thus a source of political change? I argue that, in many of countries of emigration, the essential determinants of political power are demography and money. Competing groups vie to maximize their share of both, yet hit upon a contradiction. On the one hand, emigration drains the number of resident constituents that a group rallies to vote, demonstrate, or maintain a presence on the ground. On the other, migration is often the best path to wealth for those who leave and those who receive remittances. The balance of which groups gain and lose from this trade-off evolves in accord with changes in who emigrates and to where they emigrate. Depending on the interaction between these factors, emigration and remittances contribute to generating, accentuating, or ameliorating disparities in power among groups in the country of origin. Over time, it can lead to major changes in who gains political and economic influence, and who does not. This paper explores these relationships in the case of Lebanon from the start of mass migration in the mid-1800s until the present.
Discipline
Political Science
Geographic Area
Lebanon
Sub Area
19th-21st Centuries