Abstract
“Refolution,” a form of revolutionary mobilization tempered by reformist demands, has characterized the currents of political mobilization in MENA up to and including the Arab Spring. In "Revolution without Revolutionaries" (2017), Asef Bayat attributes this pattern to the increasing dominance – and thus increasing internalization – of neo-liberal normative structures that, when paired with patterns of urbanization, encourage revolutionary mobilization through street politics. Describing these movements as “rich in movement, poor in change,” Bayat paints a picture of mass movements with tremendous street power and high potential for creating political openings, but with limited vision of alternative political orders, limited structural impact, and little control over post-opening politics.
The causal mechanisms linking the predominance of neo-liberalism to uninspired political action, however, are underspecified. My paper contributes to this literature by highlighting the role of digital communications technology. For the most part, digital communications networks have been linked to modern political movements largely by their effect on mobilization tactics, but there is less consensus in political science of how ex ante structural alterations of digital communications preface modern mobilization. There is little doubt that communications technologies have radically reformulated information delivery and processing throughout MENA, independent of mobilization tactics. The absence of this variable from existing accounts of the causal story is, therefore, puzzling.
This paper posits two causal mechanisms by which advances in digital communications technologies contribute to the formation of “refolutions,” derived from psychological studies analyzing behavior in digital contexts. First, the routinization of visible dissonance – as opposed to synthesis – within beliefs systems and between beliefs and behaviors disrupts the formation of alternative political ideologies and group cohesion. Second, political struggles are redirected from the local to the global stage, where the prime currency for mobilization rests in exaggerated signaling of virtue and victimization. I argue that these mechanisms have produced deep cognitive changes that exert enduring influence on the dynamics of political mobilization and the behaviors/preferences of political actors. I point to a number of examples from recent political movements in MENA to illustrate my point. I then contrast these movement dynamics with those of subaltern communities which – unsurprisingly – tend to lack a digital footprint. I conclude with an entreaty for increased study of the effects of cognitive path dependence and the construction of political movements.
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