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Is it Gender, Religion or Both?: A Survey Experiment on Voter Preferences in Transitional Tunisia
Abstract
The roles of gender and religion are both hot-button issues in the Arab world today and, many expect, will impact the prospects for democracy in countries undergoing transitions after the Arab spring. Scholars, policymakers and citizens express deep concern about the impact that gender has on participation and representation in the region. So, too, many fear that political Islam influences political behavior. The extent to which these forces matter for electoral outcomes—much less transitions--remains an issue of great debate. And, little has been done to understand their interactive effects on these outcomes. This paper aims to fill this gap. Using original survey data from a nationally-representative survey experiment of 1200 Tunisians conducted in 2012, this paper tests the relationship between gender and religion on citizens’ assessments of candidates. Respondents are shown pictures of potential candidates, male and female, in ‘secular’ and overtly religious dress, and asked to rate their willingness to vote for a candidate ‘like this.’ Comparing these groups, we ask: are male or female candidates, and religious or secular candidates, more likely to receive support? What is the interactive effect of these attributes? And finally, to what extent do respondents’ and interviewers’ religiosity and gender affect such assessments? Answering these questions takes us one step closer to determining the challenges that lay ahead, as Tunisia–and other countries within the region–work to enhance political representation. It also answers fundamental theoretical questions about the impact of gender, religion and the intersectionality of these factors on voter preferences and political outcomes.
Discipline
Political Science
Geographic Area
Maghreb
Sub Area
Gender/Women's Studies