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Authoritarian Transformation or Transition from Authoritarianism? Insights on Regime Change in Egypt
Abstract
Popular protest has formed a significant challenge to the prevalence of the authoritarian regime in Egypt. After weeks of mass protests in late January and early February 2011, skepticism prevails over the potential of people’s power to instigate significant political change in the guise of genuine democracy. With the military establishment taking over power and the protest movement experiencing internal fragmentation, serious doubts remain as to the long-term effects of popular protest. However, mainstream perceptions toward assessing mass protest—as to either triggering systemic transformation (democratization) or the movement’s failure (authoritarian resilience)—dismiss the notion that mass protest can have a significant impact on transformation within authoritarian regimes. This paper inquires into authoritarian regime change beyond democratization. It has three aims; first, I will provide insights into the political sociology of street protest in Egypt during the past decade by briefly discussing the aims, opportunities, and social composition of distinct movements. In reflecting on economic indicators and political events in the second half of 2010, a tipping point in Egyptian politics is identified that saw limited and contained protest turn into a major challenge for the authoritarian incumbents. Profound miscalculations of the degree of the protest as well as the failure of repressive containment strategies help explain the regime’s ineffectiveness to respond to the challenge of people’s power. In a second part of the paper, empirical evidence is provided to explain the military’s take-over in the light of ongoing pressure to allow for political reforms. While the military apparatus has effectively taken over governance procedures as early as of 28 January, the formation of political institutions and a ruling coalition are yet to follow. Third, three scenarios are discussed to link the Egyptian case to comparative historical experience and provide a more general explanation of the potential impact of protest movements for the transformation of authoritarian regimes: 1) the “Turkish scenario” that sees the military’s swift return of governance to a representative party regime; 2) the “Algerian scenario” witnessing the establishment of a military junta rendering civilian political institutions entirely ineffective; and 3) the “Sudanese scenario” that allows the military to widen its support base by integrating a popular movement into the ruling coalition.
Discipline
Political Science
Geographic Area
Egypt
Sub Area
Democratization