Abstract
Two rivals, Al Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb - AQIM - and the Islamic State - IS -, have launched a dangerous new era of terrorist competition, which will only lead to further waves of deadly violence.
This paper will compare the approaches that AQIM and IS have pursued in the Maghreb region and how the rivalry of these groups has intensified the violence of their actions to impose their preeminence and changed their tactics. The study will also analyze the existing tensions within Maghribi States between security and political reforms. Working hypothesis is that unless Maghribi governments initiate genuine reforms, AQIM and IS will consolidate their presence in the Maghreb region and improve the recruitment among the discontented youth.
The paper’s methodology will use macro-sociological and psychological approaches to terrorism using research studies linking poor economic development, bad governance and terrorism.
The analysis will use the author expertise based on several fieldworks to Algeria, Tunisia, Lebanon, Nigeria including interviews with Algerian, European, French policymakers, experts and members of the civil society in the Region.
AQIM, a Salafi-jihadist militant group considered as a terrorist organization operating in the Sahara and Sahel, takes roots in Algeria’s civil war in the 1990s and was often portrayed as an organization with limited nationalist or regional ambitions.
AQIM’s rival, IS, by contrast wants to establish a much larger “caliphate”, a State governed under the Islamic law or Sharia with provinces across the MENA region.
Both organizations have benefited from the chaos that emerged from the Arab revolts. The socio-economic and political problems in the Maghreb provided the impetus for revolutions and calls for reforms. Maghribi governments have developed a number of strategies to address the underlying issues that lead to radicalization of youth, but theses strategies have already shown their limits.
Tunisia and Libya are still experiencing upheavals and insecurity at different levels and their options are limited. Morocco is still trying to implement reforms without addressing societal unease. As for Algeria, the apparent stability is deceiving as the threat of radical Islam has not been definitely settled because of governance failure and socio-religious divisions.
The paper will also examine how European engagement strategies have to change to address this major threat to global security by determining more effective counter-measures.
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