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Succession in Egypt Between Speculation and Political Realities
Abstract
The central theme of discussion in present day Egypt in the local media, intellectual circles, and social gatherings is largely concerned with the issue of political succession. The debate has been intensified since the return of Mohamed El-Baradei to Cairo last February after serving as head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, and declaring on his arrival his intention to fight the battle of constitutional reform against the Mubarak regime. The discourse gained further momentum a few months later when President Mubarak went through a successful gallbladder operation in Germany at the age of 82. The international press and media sources were similarly drawn into the discussion, and speculation on who is to succeed Mubarak and how soon became a major topic of deliberation. The name of the president's son, Gamal Mubarak figured high on the list of potential contenders, but there were other valid candidates for the post whose names were suggested and discussed. Among these candidates were El-Baradei, Omar Suleiman, Egypt's head of general intelligence, Amr Musa, general secretary of the Arab League, and a few others. The purpose of my presentation is to consider how far the process of succession has gone in favor of Gamal Mubarak and make an assessment of how relevant is the discussion today of the potential chances that other candidates have. Bearing in mind that Gamal is perhaps the prime if not the only realistic choice for succession there are two important questions which I will try to address. How realistic is the assumption made by many commentators that he may ascend to power during his father's lifetime? and secondly, once at the helm will the young Mubarak be able to assert himself and his authority successfully on a very tough security sector in Egypt's state apparatus.
Discipline
Political Science
Geographic Area
Saudi Arabia
Sub Area
None