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The disappearing urban-rural divide in Iran's elections
Abstract
This paper suggests that the long-running urban-rural divide in the political behavior of Iranian voters is on its way out, whilst that divide gets more and more pronounced in most Western and some Middle Eastern countries. This is achieved through a quantitative study of Iran’s census socioeconomic data and the votes cast in presidential elections from 2005 to 2021. Accompanying it will also be the specific case of Iran’s 2016 parliamentary elections compared with the two presidential elections before and after, which together formed a rare case of three competitive elections in a row in the country. It has long been suggested that in Iran, as in many other places, the rural voters tend to vote for conservative candidates and the urban voters flock to the more liberal reformist faction. Moreover, there’s a common notion of voters acting in a “tribal” way in parliamentary elections in the more rural counties away from the metropolitan areas. This paper would argue that these mainstream readings of Iranian politics do not apply anymore, going hand in hand with emerging research questioning other long-held beliefs on the political behavior of the people of Iran. The paper suggests that the main reasons for this change have been first, internet penetration, especially access to social media and messaging services, and second, the evolution of both of Iran’s political factions into the vehicles of Iran’s two (or more) urban middle classes, foregoing the rural areas. Keywords: Iran elections, urban-rural divide, internet, quantitative
Discipline
Political Science
Geographic Area
Iran
Sub Area
19th-21st Centuries