Abstract
This paper deals with the Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations, focusing particularly on the contemporary Netanyahu government (established after the last elections for the Knesset: January 22, 2012). The paper begins by analyzing the favorable conditions for a diplomatic breakthrough in the negotiations: an exceptionally energetic and committed American Secretary of State (Jerry Kerry), an equally committed Israeli negotiator (Tzipi Livni), a formal acceptance of the two-state solution by the leader of the Center Right (B. Netanyahu), the weakening of the Palestinian radicals (Hamas), etc. Then the paper takes note of the unfavorable conditions for a breakthrough: a sharp power inequality between the parties, negative perception among Israelis of the consequences of withdrawals from Lebanon & especially Gaza, the strength of the rejectionist camp both inside Likud and in the Israeli Right in general, the traditional ideological position of the Prime Minister, etc. Given this balance, the paper evaluate the chances of finding a solution—permanent or temporary—that the parties could agree to, analyzing in details the parameters of such a deal (borders, demographics, security, Jerusalem). Most specifically, the paper compares the positions of Prime Minister Netanyahu in his third term in office (1996-99, 2009-2013, 2013-14), assessing patterns of continuity versus patterns of change.
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