Abstract
Embodied in the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative (API), Saudi involvement in the Arab-Israeli peace process before the Arab Spring coalesced around support for a comprehensive agreement based on a pan-Arab consensus. Saudi interest in the peace process stemmed from the need to balance their security relationship with the US with the consequent backlash from anti-American forces in the region. To pursue these opposing ends, Saudis adopted the role of “donor-mediator”: utilizing oil wealth and regional political capital, they encouraged, incentivized and/ or hosted negotiations to support diplomacy and defuse aggression at home and in countries like Syria and Iraq. For example, Saudis cautiously supported US-sponsored peace processes in the 1990s-2000s and simultaneously maintained close political and economic relationships with Syria and funded the PLO.
The Arab Spring fundamentally transformed Saudi foreign policy behavior. No longer a cautious, balanced “donor-mediator,” the Kingdom emerged as an assertive regional player, seeking influence and even hegemony. It has led both the counter-revolution against forces of domestic reform and the Sunni charge against an ascendant Iran, alongside a shifting position towards Arab-Israeli relations. Its behind-the-scenes support for the Abraham Accords resulted in bilateral normalization between Israel and key Saudi partners, but at the expense of the pan-Arab consensus, Palestinian national aspirations, and comprehensive settlement envisioned in the API. Simultaneously, the Saudis have quietly but deliberately embraced Israel as a strategic partner.
This paper argues that four key factors which emerged from the Arab Spring have catalyzed this Saudi shift in security strategy. 1) The Arab Spring neutralized radical challenges stemming from Syria, Libya, and Iraq, removing the need for conciliation, consensus, and balancing. 2) Regional instability and domestic security now eclipse regional focus on the Palestinian national cause, and with it, any pressure for a comprehensive settlement. 3) Iranian regional adventurism and nuclear ambitions challenge Saudi, Israeli and US security. This has decreased the taboo of cooperation, enabling collaboration in other fields of mutual interest including economic, technological, and resource management. 4) Finally, US retrenchment from the Middle East has cast them as an unreliable ally, forcing the Saudis to take a more proactive role in their defense and pursue local security solutions.
Discipline
International Relations/Affairs
Geographic Area
Arab States
Gulf
Israel
Palestine
Saudi Arabia
Sub Area
None