Abstract
The paper addresses the following question: has emigration from Arab countries affected revolts and their outcomes in migrants’ countries of origin? Emigration can impact migrants’ homeland’s politics through the three following channels:
Channel 1: Involvement of returned émigrés. Former students abroad, migrant workers or exiles have been involved in the revolts and/or have taken over positions in the governments born from the revolts.
Channel 2: Participation of current migrants in elections in their homeland. Interestingly, granting émigrés political rights in their country of origin was the most recent step pre-revolution Arab states took in a series of actions aimed at strengthening their expatriate nationals’ inclusion in homeland society and citizenry.
Channel 3: Indirect and often unconscious influence émigrés exert on families and communities left behind in the origin country through a mechanism of ideational or political remittances. The direction in which such remittances work is unclear. Ideas and political models migrants convey to their community or even to society as a whole through the media can be mainstream models and values of the host society, and their transmission by migrants may, then, be interpreted as a sign of successful integration. But they might also be values and models reflecting protests against the established order, and then, they may be connected with failed migrant integration.
The paper explores the hypothesis of political remittances in three countries: Egypt and Tunisia, where revolutions have in the first instance brought about Islamist majorities in parliaments and governments, and Morocco, where a shift towards Islamism has taken place without a revolution. Specifically, the study is based on an analysis of the correlation between, on the one hand, votes in the 2011 -2012 elections at district/region/province level (in terms of turnout and scores obtained by parties/candidates) and, on the other, the emigration rate.
Isolating the impact of emigration from other factors is not easy, however. Indeed, migration is one dimension of the connectivity between peoples and it works in combination with other dimensions, and notably: the overall mobility of people, of which migration is only a small part; the indirect links between peoples created by economic activities; the virtual communication between peoples through their exposure to global media and their interconnection by phone or by internet.
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