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The Dynamics of Security Relations in North Africa: The Effects of the Arab Revolts
Abstract
The paper will analyze the changing aspects of North African security relations since the 2010 uprisings. The analysis will make use of theoretical perspectives on balance of power and inter-state rivalries to decipher the events unfolding in the region. Following the Arab Uprisings that swept across the Middle East and North Africa, threats to the incumbent regimes and/or the insecurity prevailing domestically and at the borders have compelled the North African states to seek greater cooperation to overcome the hardships with which they are faced. Because of the regional threats in the Sahara-Sahel, on the one hand, and the menace that militias in Libya and Jihadists in Tunisia and Egypt are posing in the neighborhood, new security alignments have emerged. Increasingly, threatened neighbors have turned to Algeria, which has greatly flexed its regional military muscles and also eluded new uprisings, to help not only to secure the porous borders, but also to assist politically. For instance, Egypt, which has been suspended from the African Union due to the coup against Morsi, has sought Algeria’s assistance to reintegrate the continental organization. The transitional government in Tunisia has relied on Algeria’s mediation to find political compromise, while Libya is now partly dependent on Algeria for some of its domestic and external security. Yet, Algeria itself faces domestic political (contentious presidential election) and internal security issues (communal conflict in Ghardaïa, terrorist attack in Tigantourine…). In the late 1980s, prospects for integration, particularly in the Maghreb, were high; the process of integration reflected the aspirations of states and societies; now calls for unity have re-emerged, but under very different circumstances. Analysis shows that the inter-Maghreb rapprochement in the 1980s was in many ways a response to internal and external events, namely, economic difficulties, ‘fortress Europe’, and the rise of radical Islamism. A similar rapprochement took place following the Arab uprisings; however, calls for unity n the wake of the revolts, after a long period of tense relations are unlikely to yield long-term reconciliation, since, like in the 1980s, once the threats abate, inter-states rivalries resume and worsen, as has been the case between Algeria and Morocco.
Discipline
International Relations/Affairs
Geographic Area
Maghreb
Sub Area
Maghreb Studies