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The Arab Cold War Revisited
Abstract by Dr. Nabeel Khoury On Session 195  (Cold War Dynamics)

On Tuesday, November 20 at 1:30 pm

2012 Annual Meeting

Abstract
The aim of this paper is to study the impact of domestic changes brought forth by the series of uprisings witnessed in the Arab world during 2011 on regional and international politics. Drawing on Malcolm Kerr’s Arab cold war model, the paper will explore the foreign policy dimension of the domestic changes occurring in the region and project the potential impact on regional and international alliances. Following the competition between Arab monarchies and socialist republics alluded to by Kerr in his 1965 bipolar model, the 20th century went on to witness the failure of socialism, which transformed the relationship between the monarchies and republics into one of pragmatism and cooperation. The establishment of the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979 triggered the rise of a third axis, Islamism, which competed with those two actors for people’s hearts and minds as well as for political influence. The Arab Spring has resulted in the breakdown of this triangle of power. The main thesis of this paper is that the “conservative monarchism-radical socialism-Islamism” triangle is being replaced with a new one, composed of the following political players: conservative monarchies, transitioning republics, and non-state Islamist groups. The key difference between the two triangles is that, post-Arab Spring, in addition to non-state Islamism, moderate Islamist parties, hitherto marginalized opposition parties, are emerging as mainstream political forces within the transitioning republics. Using a comparative foreign policy framework focusing on decision-making processes, positions taken by the different actors, and historical analysis of state and non-state actor behavior over the past 60 years (1952-2012), the paper aims to show how the three players in the new model are likely to be the region’s main competitors for influence and resources. The paper argues that this new model necessitates revisiting inter-regional dynamics in the Arab world as well as its international alliances. While certain transpiring dynamics are new, others almost resurrect the past. On the one hand, new patron-client relationships are emerging alongside established ones (such as the rise of Turkey’s regional role), but on the other hand, the old competition between conservative monarchies and republics is returning, albeit in a new form, as monarchies will largely be uncomfortable with democratic transitions in the region and seek in various ways to isolate and protect their own societies from them.
Discipline
International Relations/Affairs
Geographic Area
All Middle East
Sub Area
Foreign Relations