Abstract
How does ascription to an identity group shape individual willingness to join an anti-government rebellion? Prior work on explaining individual participation in violent collective action has either focused on economic and security incentives or a direct pull from local leaders or participants in the conflict, but has neglected the role that pre-war identity framing plays in directing individual support for conflict participation. I argue that while past government repression increases an individual's likelihood of supporting a rebellion, it does so only under the condition that identity leaders had indoctrinated past government repression into the collective consciousness of an identity group as a way of building a collective memory and increasing their influence. Absent an embedded collective perception of threat from the government, strongly identifying members of identity groups are unlikely to support engaging in a rebellion, regardless of either past repression or influence from group leaders, as blame had not been previously assigned to government actors. Conversely, individuals should be unlikely to join rebellions by other identity groups if their group's collective memories have singled out any of those groups for past violence.
I test this assertion by carrying out a survey experiment in Lebanon that traces the mechanisms that shape individual preferences toward joining a conflict. I chose Lebanon because escalating tension between the country's confessional groups in light of the civil war in neighboring Syria makes the outbreak of conflict plausible among respondents, while uniquely maintaining an environment that is stable enough to conduct a survey. The design is tailored specifically to extracting accurate responses on sensitive issues through a list-experiment question that allows individuals to respond on their willingness to join a conflict indirectly, with responses only identifiable at the aggregate level. To capture the role of collective memory, I introduce several priming questions designed to capture negative emotion toward the government or specific identity groups and to relate that negative emotion to priming of collective memories by identity group leaders during peacetime.
The results of the survey experiment not only supply evidence of the role that collective memory of violence plays in driving individual participation in civil conflict, but provide an assessment of the current propensity of Lebanon's major identity groups to rebel in the face of a political shock and the likely alignment that conflict actors will take immediately after such a rebellion.
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