One of the few beneficiaries of the 2003 Invasion of Iraq, the Kurds seemed on a linear path towards independence as the Iraqi state reeled from sectarian civil war, the 2011 Arab uprisings and the emergence of ISIS in 2014 and its dramatic defeat in 2017. Kurdish politicians had long-quipped that Kurdistan would become independent, not through their own agency, but simply because the Iraqi state would collapse first. However, when Masoud Barzani forced an independence referendum on September 25, 2017, the back lash was swift. Within three weeks the Iraqi Army and associated militias had reclaimed disputed areas (and crucial oilfields) under Kurdish control since 2003, closed Kurdish airspace and subsequently renegotiated the Kurdish autonomy bargain on Baghdad’s terms. How did this stunning reversal occur? This chapter argues that Kurdish aspirations for independence or even an enhanced autonomy were challenged on three levels: weak and divided institutions in the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), economic mismanagement on a colossal scale, and the withdrawal of trust in Kurdish leaders by the public. A curious paradox of the KRG’s trajectory since 2003 has been its increasing economic dependence on the very forces that could determine its survival, namely; Baghdad, Turkey and Iran.