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Depression, Disappointment, and Democratic Values after Failed Revolution
Abstract
On February 11, 2011, Hosni Mubarak resigned after nearly 30 years in office and 18 days of mounting protest. Sadly, Egypt’s democratic experiment proved to be short lived and by the third anniversary of the revolution, authoritarian retrenchment was well underway. While this turn of events has proven tumultuous for the country’s economic and national security, those who have experienced the political fallout of this chaos most acutely are those who were most engaged in changing Egypt’s political system – namely, the revolutionaries of 2011. We are interested in how the disappointment of those who were initially galvanized by the 2011 revolution affects their subsequent political behavior, in line with literature on how depression and related mental-health issues might demobilize political actors. Similarly, we are interested in how the emboldening of regime supporters with the counter-revolution of July 2013 might similarly spur these individuals to political action. We test these hypotheses through a nationally representative survey of Egyptian citizens conducted in November 2018. The survey included an embedded experiment, which asked one third of respondents to remember the 2011 uprising and to report their level of disappointment with subsequent events. Another third of respondents were asked to remember the 2013 coup and to report their level of disappointment with subsequent events, while a third were asked no questions as a control comparison. Preliminary results suggest that those asked to remember the 2013 coup report significantly less support for democratic values, trust in government institutions, and the likelihood of protest behavior, such as attending a meeting, signing a petition, or participating in a protest. Preliminary analysis also suggests that those who were more disappointed by both the events of 2011 and 2013 are most affected by our primes. Our findings contribute to a small but growing literature on the important question of how mass political behavior contributes to or detracts from the consolidation of democratic transitions.
Discipline
Political Science
Geographic Area
Egypt
Sub Area
None