MESA Banner
Tunisia’s Security: The Democratic Transition’s Achilles Heel
Abstract
Tunisia has faced serious security obstacles since the 2011 Revolution which have hampered the consolidation of democracy. After successfully completing major steps in the political transition (new constitution, legislative and presidential elections in 2014), the economy and security remain major challenges. While there exist structural conditions and problematic policy decisions affecting the economic performance, domestic and regional instability significantly worsened the economy. In fact, the two are intertwined, for deteriorating socioeconomic conditions, e.g., the large informal sector, elevated inflation, high unemployment—especially among the marginalized youth (40%)—have radicalized many youngsters who have joined Salafi Jihadist groups. The Islamist Ennahda party decided during its tenure in power to free thousands of Islamist militants, some of whom Jihadists, imprisoned by Ben Ali, and demonstrated leniency toward their activities; Ennahda permitted Salafi preachers to exploit mosques across the country as platforms and now the vast majority of those mosques are under the domination of Salafists, enabling the dissemination of Jihadist messages. Furthermore, the civil war in Libya, the establishment there of safe heavens by Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, Ansar-al-Shari ’a, and the Islamic State, and the availability of weapons and arms smuggling, have further threatened security. Three thousand Tunisian Jihadists have joined the fight in Iraq and Syria and over 9,000 have been blocked at the border; both the returnees and those turned back pose credible threats to Tunisia’s stability. Because of the regional menace in the Sahara-Sahel and the threats that militias in Libya and Jihadists in Tunisia are posing in North Africa, new security alignments have emerged. Both Tunisia, whose armed forces have less sophisticated equipment than the Jihadists, and Libya, have turned to Algeria, which has greatly flexed its regional military power, to secure both countries' porous borders. Based on active fieldwork, including dozens of recent informative views on three continents, this paper examines Tunisia’s current security challenges and to what degree its cooperation with Algeria and the latter’s with Libya may improve the country’s stability which, in turn, could help the economy, attract tourists and investments, and create jobs, developments which will contribute to the democratic consolidation in Tunisia. But are the security strategies to address emerging security challenges and realignments up to the task?
Discipline
International Relations/Affairs
Geographic Area
Maghreb
Sub Area
Foreign Relations