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How Does Outmigration Affect Politics in the Sending Country? The Case of Lebanon
Abstract
From Morocco to Syria, labor emigration of the best and brightest constitutes a "brain drain" akin, in the words of the U.N. 2003 Arab Human Development Report, to a "hemorrhage." At the same time, migrants' remittances account for some 20 percent of GDP in Jordan, 7 percent in Yemen, and 15 percent in the West Bank and Gaza. The impact of outmigration upon the populations and economies of the Middle East is thus sweeping. But how does emigration affect politics in the countries left behinde This paper probes this question through analysis of contemporary Lebanon. While polls show that most Lebanese citizens are "fed up" with corrupt politicians and woeful public services, change remains elusive. Most attribute entrenched patterns in Lebanese politics to sectarianism or clientelism. I suggest that neither explain political outcomes in the absence of outmigration. About one fifth of Lebanese citizens, and almost one-third of those with tertiary education, live outside their home country. The IMF ranks Lebanon first in the world among recipients of workers' remittances per capita. I suggest that emigration contributes to the reproduction of nondemocratic politics in several ways. Emigration serves as a "safety valve" that prevents residents from reaching the level of distress that the poor state of the economy and public goods provision might otherwise induce. It offers an "exit option" that reduces the imperative of working for political reform, be it among those who leave, those who expect to leave, or those who receive funds from loved ones abroad. In addition, migration depletes the ranks of those best positioned to bring new ideas and skills into public life; the departure of large segments of the middle class solidifies the polity left behind as one of patrons and clients. It also detaches diasporic citizens' nostalgic love of homeland from a commitment to improving its governance. Finally, outmigration undergirds clientelist relationships by continually infusing migrant wealth into politics. The cumulative effect of outmigration is hence to reinforce the status quo, despite pervasive dissatisfaction. This research has wide-reaching implications. While Lebanon's sectarian composition and political system are unique, the essence of its politics is similar to the rest of the region in that it is characterized by endemic corruption, weak rule of law, and lack of accountability. In exploring the heretofore overlooked relationship between emigration and nondemocratic politics, this project offers fresh insight into the politics of the Arab world, at large.
Discipline
Political Science
Geographic Area
Mashreq
Sub Area
19th-21st Centuries