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Is Iran Losing the Soft War? Decoding #IranRegimeChange
Abstract
In September 2018, amid major economic grievances in Iran, a Twitter campaign emerged to target key American foreign policy figures for their support of a democratic transition in Iran. In addition to amplifying messages in favor of regime change in Iran, the #IranRegimeChange campaign quickly became a conduit for conveying the strategic interests of the political opposition groups. In response to these subversive messages, coordinated activities on Instagram surfaced that indicated an ostensible association to the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI). We will apply a quantitative methodology along with the theoretical framework of “soft war” to identify and analyze the actors and their tactics in the #IranRegimeChange campaign. To this end, this paper will entertain the following research questions: 1. How do social media platforms affect the perceived soft war between Iran and foreign actors? 2. What differences characterize the affordances of Twitter and Instagram that allow for distinct strategic choices in the Iranian soft war? Using supervised machine learning, we identified 26 Twitter popular hashtags (e.g. #IranRegimeChange and #IranProtests) between September 21 and October 24, 2018 and collected a total of 1,238,566 tweets via Twitter’s streaming API. In addition, we analyzed the co-occurence of tagged users in state-aligned communications on Instagram. We apply social network, community detection, and other statistical analyses with R and Python scripts to analyze coordinated inauthentic activities throughout the campaign. The paper will demonstrate that the weaponized use of social media platforms can bolster nonmilitary objectives, such as political pressure for regime change. The #IranRegimeChange campaign exemplifies the long-held anxiety of the IRI about the soft war that seeks to influence the Iranian public and undermine the IRI. This in turn prompts IRI to respond to these perceived threats. However, we argue that a thorough evaluation of the success of influence operations is key to the holistic understanding of their capacity and limits. Through the case study of #IranRegimeChange, the paper contributes to the relatively small literature on Iran and the soft war. It also adds to the body of knowledge on the implications of new technological tools for foreign policy debates, in particular for Iran-US relations under the Trump administration. The paper will conclude by recommending future research that integrates the nuances of emerging threats that digital mediums pose to diplomacy in the Middle East.
Discipline
International Relations/Affairs
Geographic Area
Iran
Sub Area
Information Technology/Computing