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Iran: Anatomy of a Revolution Delayed
Abstract
This paper considers the ongoing conflict between Iran's rulers and the supporters of Green Movement as a result of a head-on collision between two contradictory forces. In recent years, public attitudes in Iran have become more liberal. At the same time, power has shifted from conservative pragmatism toward a much more militant fundamentalism. Thirty years after the Islamic revolution, Iranians are growing demonstrably less religious and more liberal. Two face-to-face surveys of more than 2,500 Iranian adults, conducted in 2000 and 2005, clearly show the trend. But, while this was reflected in reformist trends in the country's wider political life, a movement toward militant fundamentalism took shape within the regime's power structure. To describe and explain how the conflicts between these two opposing forces are developed into protest movement, this paper analyzes the periodic occurrences since the disputed elections on June 12, 2009. This paper argues that these occurrences are diverse; some are political and reflected in protest demonstrations, while other are more cultural and symbolic that use poetry, music, and songs. It also argues that these occurrences are not randomly distributed. Rather, they are clustered together in time and each cluster forms a wave. The strength and the innovativeness of each wave decide the strength and the character of the following. The sequence of the concatenated waves decides the effectiveness of the Green Movement in changing the structure and/or policies of the Islamic regime in Iran.
Discipline
Sociology
Geographic Area
None
Sub Area
None