Abstract
In the Constituent Assembly elections of October 2011, the first elections following the Jasmine Revolution in Tunisia, Ennahda won around forty percent of the popular vote. This electoral success has been attributed to a number of factors including the party’s superior organization and mobilization efforts, its social service provision, the party’s association with religion, its long-standing opposition to the previous regime, the weakness of competing parties, and its future vision for the country. Shortly before the election, the second wave of the Arab Barometer was carried out in Tunisia asking ordinary citizens questions about a range of political, social and economic issues including party support. This survey reveals that nearly twice as many Tunisians stated their intention to vote for Ennahda compared to the percentage that Ennahda was the party that best represented their own ideological views. Generally speaking, this suggests that half of Ennahda’s support was sincere while half was strategic in nature.
This paper seeks to compare the difference in types of support for Ennahda to test these theories of the reasons for Ennahda’s success. Two key comparisons are made. First, what leads some ordinary citizens to support Ennahda relative to other parties? Second, what accounts for the difference in sincere and strategic support for Ennahda? Answering these questions can help to shed light on the factors accounting for this parties success and offer insight into the factors underlying the success of similar parties throughout the region.
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