When addressing volatile social tension in Lebanon, scholars frequently employ the phrase, ‘Lebanon was on the brink of civil war’ in one way or another. When analyzing protracted civil conflict, most scholars argue that it is made possible by the dynamic push and pull between local, regional and international pressures. This paper does not disagree with these scholarly rationalizations, but argues that they must be empirically tested to situate an event along the continuum of social tension and civil conflict. Using the method of fuzzy set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA), this paper asks, “what are the causal factors that distinguish social tension from protracted civil conflict in the Lebanese context, and in turn, what ensures an escalation?” The comparative social science approach allows for this paper to address an expansive time period (i.e., 1841-2008) and different contextual conflict periods (including the 1860 Civil War, the first phase of the Lebanese Civil War--1975-1976--and the May 2008 Clashes to name a few). Moreover, this study considers all selected cases as having a degree of membership to the protracted civil conflict outcome (perhaps a limited one for cases usually termed as social tension), an application of “fuzzy set logic.” In not merely supposing that a certain event is or is not a civil conflict, this study tests combinations of causal factors (i.e., how constitutional challenges to the ruling power and armament of opposing groups can spark civil conflict vs. how the presence of foreign intervention and threats to group identity can spark civil conflict) to assess what patterns (i.e., the absence, presence or intensification of X, Y and Z factors) distinguish social tension from protracted civil conflict. Furthermore, this paper addresses which of the five tested causal conditions could be considered the most crucial to ensure an escalation to protracted civil conflict: severe threats to group identity facilitated by demonizing rhetoric (i.e., “enemy images”). This paper contributes to both the fields of fsQCA and conflict studies in the Middle East as it simultaneously extends the application of fsQCA to conflict dynamics in Lebanon, while elaborating and challenging theories on conflict in Lebanon through empirical justifications.