Abstract
The literature on the transnational aspect of armed conflict points to ethnic ties that transcend national boundaries as a source of war as well as peace. The Kurds, as the fourth largest nation in the Middle East, are divided between four Middle Eastern states, Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and Syria. Their century-long struggle for recognition came to partial realization with the invasion of Iraq in 2003 by the United States-led coalition. This was followed by the de-facto Kurdish autonomous region in the north gaining official recognition in Iraq’s new constitution.
The rise of the Islamic States (IS) in Iraq and Syria in 2014 and the failure of Iraqi and Syrian central governments to stand against the IS turned the Kurds in these two countries into indispensable on-the-ground partners in the fight against radical Islam. As a result of their alliance with the United States, the Kurds managed to strengthen their position and expand the size of territory under their control. Significantly, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in Iraq took this opportunity to seize other Kurdish inhabited parts of the country, most notably the oil-rich town of Kirkuk, which had been a source of tensions between Iraqi central government and the KRG since the collapse of Saddam Hussein’s regime. The KRG, in an attempt to legitimize and cement these gains, called for a referendum on September 25, 2017. What was meant to initiate a peaceful divorce from Iraq quickly turned into an utter failure. The Iraqi national army backed by Iran and Shiite militias ran over the Kurdish defenses and re-took the control of Kirkuk and other disputed areas.
In this paper, building on the existing literature on the trans-border nature of armed conflict, I examine the potential consequences of this failed attempt at independence. What is the prospect for a unified KRG? What does this failed attempt tell us about the nation and state building capacity of the Kurds in Iraq? How can this failure affect Kurdish aspirations for recognition in Syria, Turkey, and Iran?
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