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Electoral Fraud and Sectarian Oligarchy in Lebanon: Evidence from a Survey Experiment
Abstract
This paper attempts to shed light on the rampant electoral fraud in Lebanon by analyzing the results of an original public opinion survey using a list experiment. The questions are: what proportion of Lebanese have been subjected to vote-buying by politicians and political parties, and what characteristics and tendencies make Lebanese more likely to engage in such practices? By answering these questions, this paper seeks to explore the persistence of Lebanon’s sectarian oligarchy from the perspective of non-elite individuals. The result of the list experiment showed that 48.55% of the respondents experienced vote-buying by their sectarian elites. The OLS of the result showed that, contrary to conventional wisdom, those with higher trust in democracy (i.e. parliament and elections) were more likely to respond to vote-buying by sectarian political elites. In addition, those who strongly expect patronage from their own sectarian party are more likely to engage in vote-buying and to find incentives to help it win elections repeatedly. These findings suggest that patronage remains a strong influence on voting behaviour in Lebanon, and that elections have become a game for voters to choose candidates who represent and guarantee their sectarian interests through vote-buying, which everyone does. These deep-rooted problems have made it difficult for Lebanon to make progress on political reforms to improve the quality of democracy and to implement anti-corruption measures to create a fairer society.
Discipline
Political Science
Geographic Area
Lebanon
Sub Area
None