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Tunisian Youth, Predictors of Regional Instability, and Prospects for the Future
Abstract
Tunisia experienced a significant expansion in its youth populations (those aged 15-24) during the last decade of the twentieth century and the first decade of the twenty-first century, along with the other states of the Maghreb (Libya, Algeria, Morocco, and Mauritania). “Youth bulges” created social stresses and contributed to the 2011-2012 revolts. Youth as a proportion of total population will decrease during the next twenty years yet youth unemployment is expected to remain high, especially of university youth. This paper examines the imminent contraction of the “youth bulge,” its relationship with trends in youth unemployment, and the importance of understanding youth unemployment in the context of obtaining social stability. It looks at the future of labor markets in North Africa and corollary effects upon the underground economy and migration. Despite the current decline in the “youth bulge,” occurring at varying rates across the Maghreb, labor markets in North Africa will still remain under pressure. North African governments will have to focus not only upon GDP growth but also balance the provision of meaningful jobs from the public sector and other scalable government-led jobs creation efforts in order to avoid continued unrest among urban youth. Since the mid-1980s the proportion of jobs in the public sector have noticeably decreased while the private sector has been unable to create the huge numbers of jobs needed to have a meaningful effect upon youth unemployment. This contradiction in the labor market with its related developments both in the informal sector and in realigned regional migration. Reimagining a state role for employment creation within the public sector may be required. This paper will rely on analysis of primary and secondary sources—including demographic, labor, and economic data—along with field interviews with officials and experts.
Discipline
Political Science
Geographic Area
None
Sub Area
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