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Reconsidering "State-Diffusion" in Jordan: Evidence from a List Experiment Survey
Abstract
This paper explores the citizens’ views of the state and nation under Hashemite authoritarian rule in Jordan through an analysis of the independent public opinion survey conducted in 2023, particularly with a list experiment method. Since its founding in the early 20th century, Jordan has experienced a series of state-transformations, including changes in borders and redefinitions of its people as the results of the conflicts with Israel as well as the peace treaty, and to some extent, the massive influx of Iraqi and Syrian refugees. While the sovereign rule of the Hashemite family has shown robustness and seems to succeed in fostering state- and nation-building, it should not be underestimated that Jordanian territory has expanded and contracted, and thus the Jordanian nationality has been redefined throughout history. In this context, the question is: ‘To what extent do Jordanian citizens accept the state-building and national unity led by the Hashemite monarchy?’ It will have implications not only for prospecting the political stability of the current Jordanian state but also for exploring factors that would sustain the authoritarian monarchy. This paper refers to such political dynamics concerning the Jordanian state and nation, namely contested statehood in Jordan as ‘state-diffusion,’ and explores its mechanism by focusing on the citizen’s view of the state and the nation. Jordan embraces a diverse population, such as local notables, tribes, Palestinian origins, Bedouins, ethnic minorities, and Islamists; each of them has tried to establish a different relationship with the Jordanian state and nation as well as the monarchy. Previous studies on Jordanian politics have successfully revealed the historical fluctuation of statehood in Jordan with mainly qualitative and historical analyses, particularly of the elites’ narratives. However, few have dealt with the non-elite citizens’ views with qualitative methods. It is probably due to the limitations of data collection under the authoritarian rule. While the Arab Barometer provides rich resources for quantitative analyses on Middle Eastern countries, including Jordan, this paper employed experimental methods to collect the citizens’ answers to delicate and sensitive questions on the state- and nation-building promoted by the authoritarian monarchy.
Discipline
Political Science
Geographic Area
Jordan
Sub Area
None