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Economic Diversification in the GCC Countries: Past Record and Future Trends
Abstract
Empolying an empirical and comparative approach, this research paper analyses the past record and the future trends of economic diversification efforts in the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries in the post 1973/74 period. The proposed paper is an outcome of a broader reserach project dealing with developmental issues in the GCC countries. In addition to published academic sources such as books and journal articles, this reseach rely on recent field work in each of the six GCC countries and not least as a novelty, it bases its analysis of future diversification trends on a review of the currrent development plans or national visions publiched by the GCC governments. Applying the methodology of 'content analysis' to the reading of the plans, four questions guides this enquiry: (i) What barriers to growth are foreseen and how is diversification envisioned to solve them?; (ii) What economic sectors are targets for the diversification effort?; (iii) Who will be the driver of the future economy, the state or the market, the public or the private sector?; (vi) What type of (economic) state is envisioned in the future; an allocation or an production state? Among the findings are that the GCC countries do not pursue a 'Western' neo-liberal and market based economy, but rather express desires to continue along the path of a state-led, but market based economy resembling 'Asian state-capitalism.' Another finding is that the current economic model - the allocation state model - has run out of steam. It neither creates enough jobs nor income to accomodate the current and future needs in these societies. This development leverages the future drive toward diversification. The impact of the 'Arab spring' and the current high level of oil and gas prices is found to produce both factors that reinforce this drive toward diversification and the opposite.
Discipline
Political Science
Geographic Area
Arabian Peninsula
Sub Area
Gulf Studies