The thirst for oil and gas inside the six Gulf Arab states, driven by deep subsidies, has given rise to unsustainable consumption, reduced export potential and domestic shortage. Most theories of the politics of these states, devised in the era of seemingly endless supply, are also under pressure. Thus, the energy crunch in the Gulf not only creates the impetus for autocratic regimes to modify relations with their citizens, but it also threatens the academic models that frame that relationship. This paper, stemming from the second year of a Cambridge University PhD dissertation, analyzes the direction of both of these streams. It examines trends in energy consumption and pricing. It surveys expert opinions to examine shifts in government policy, including historical changes as well as expectations of future change. And it examines how altered policies compare with the expectations of the Rentier State Theory literature, a genre that, more than any other, has shaped understanding of state-society relations in the energy-rich Middle East. Where evidence of reform is unavailable, the methodology of Expert Elicitation has been used to survey experts and policymakers regarding their expectations for energy subsidies and reforms. Many of these surveys have been finished at the time of writing, and I plan to present aggregate findings at the conference. Complementing the expert surveys is a public survey completed for the author by the polling firm YouGov. That survey, which polled nearly a thousand GCC nationals, was completed in December 2011, with responses revealing attitudes towards energy and government reform framed within respondents’ expectations as citizens. The day is approaching when Gulf oil and natural gas production will be unable to meet global as well as regional demand, and when the state-society relationship will have to be redrawn. Here, the hypothesis tested holds that states will be forced to curtail domestic consumption of energy in the interest of protecting the long-term basis for their economies and the longevity of their regimes. It is the flow of rents, after all, that allows Gulf autocrats to block the advance of democracy and maintain their families in power.