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Israel and Iran after the Nuclear Treaty
Abstract
The nuclear treaty with Iran will have a number of ramifications for the region in general, and Iran and Israel in particular. It is important to note that the security conception of both Iran and Israel is essentially zero-sum. It is perceived by both parties that what helps the security of the one necessarily harms the security of the other, and vice versa. This has the potential to rapidly escalate confrontations in unforeseen ways. In the long term, a nuclear-armed Iran will enable the country to achieve strategic parity with Israel in the long term. Yet in the short-term, whether or not the deal actually succeeds in preventing the emergence of a nuclear-armed Iran is less important than the assumption held by many regional actors that it won't. The fear that Iran will ultimately become nuclear capable is especially acute among Iran's Sunni rivals in the Gulf and in Egypt, who do not necessarily trust American security guarantees. Paradoxically, then, the deal will likely lead to greater nuclear proliferation - the Sunni states will seek parity by developing a weapon of their own, or acquiring one by some other means. Such other means could include, for example, purchasing one from Pakistan. Moreover, the improvement of Iran's international and economic position may have other negative consequences for the region, and for Israel. The elimination of sanctions will be a financial windfall for Iran which will enable it to continue to support, and to enhance its support, its client groups in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza, and to pursue new client-patron relationships in other venues as well, for example, the West Bank. It may choose to activate its proxies in an effort to embroil Israel in a series of low to mid-intensity conflicts which will do much to weaken Israel's diplomatic and economic position. Increased funds at Iran's disposal will also have the added effect of enabling it to continue funding the government forces and its allies in Syria, which will prolong the conflict there. There may well be other diplomatic repercussions as well. Israel has famously maintained a 'don't ask-don't tell' policy with regards to its own nuclear capability; Iran may push for 'full Israeli transparency' and then sanctions or disarmament as part of a future "nuclear free Middle East."
Discipline
Political Science
Geographic Area
Israel
Sub Area
None