Abstract
During the seventy years of its existence, Israel’s relations with the Arab world have experienced a radical turnabout. Recently a new stage evolved, with some Arab states willing to develop ties of cooperation that point in the direction of a strategic security alliance.
The forming of strategic alliance based on full normalization between Israel and its Arab neighbors reflects the changing face of the Middle East and the deep processes it is undergoing. At the head of these is the decline of Arabism and the decline of the Arab world, while on the other side, Iran and Turkey, and Israel too, are rising in influence and power. Indeed, it is these three countries that today dictate the path the Middle East will take. Nevertheless, the warming up of Arab-Israeli relations, alongside the American backing provides Israel with a clear advantage over it rivals and enemies in the Middle East.
Will this tendency continue under the Biden Administration? What might be the implications of the American elections (November 2020) as well as the Israeli elections (March 2020) for the Middle East in large and for the Israeli and Arab relations with Iran. This could be easily seen through the prism of the development in Syria, a key state for a better understanding of the trends and the prospects for the future.
Indeed, the war in Syria, at least the military aspect, seems to be coming to an end with Bashar al-Asad and his regime being victorious. However, Iran is still striving to gain a permanent foothold in Syria, with the aim turning making it an integral part of the Iranian axis, headed by Teheran, continuing on to Baghdad and Damascus, and ending on the shores of the Mediterranean, in Beirut.
During the last several years a series of incidents took place between Israel, Iran and Hizballah on Syrian soil. True, none of the parties – Russia and Bashar in particular, but Israel and Iran as well – has any interest in the escalation of the conflict and its deterioration into an all-out Iranian-Israeli confrontation (The First War of the North). Thus, any exchange of blows, no matter how limited, could be quite dangerous. On the one hand, they could lead to red lines and ground rules as part of a mutual Iranian-Israeli balance of deterrence and terror, at least when it comes to Syria.
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