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Effects of the COVID19 crisis on manufacturing: Evidence from Egypt
Abstract
The Corona Crisis is unprecedented in terms of the danger it poses to health globally. Most coun-tries have instituted full or partial lock-down measures to save lives. But protecting human life has an economic cost in terms of slowed growth and productivity, massive job losses and broken value chains. This paper descriptively assesses the effect of the crisis on some main indicators of firm level economic activity in Egypt. The paper will also identify important transmission mechanisms. These effects and mechanisms will differ from sector to sector and by other factors such as firm and management characteristics, ranging from size to nationality of ownership, to location (indus-trial zone or other), technology adopted in the firm before the crisis hit; and how far its production processes depend on automation, or the ability of its workers to perform substantial tasks from home. The effects will also differ based on the support received from government. On account of the expected change in demand, some sectors may relatively benefit, likely those in chemicals and pharmaceuticals but many others will lose. Information on shutting down, full or partial exit will also be presented as part of the assessment of the damage. This analysis will also specify effects of the crisis on Value Chain operations, Sales, Exports, Em-ployment and Productivity by Firm Size, Sector, Spatial Agglomeration and informality status. The survey covers about 3000 firms of which 2000 are still in operation. Two questionnaires were administered one for firms that are still in operation, and another, very similar one, for firms that have exited the market or have temporarily shut down operations during fieldwork time. The data were collected at the beginning of the second wave extending to the height of it, precisely be-tween November 19th 2020 and 31st of January 2021. The data are representative of the entire manufacturing sector in Egypt, that is firms belong to the formal as well as the informal sector, export or predominantly serve the domestic market, are located both in and out of special economic areas and zones, are both private and public and are of all firm sizes.
Discipline
Economics
Geographic Area
None
Sub Area
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