Abstract
This paper will begin with an analysis of possible changes in Iran's regional policy and internal dynamics following its June 12, 2009 election. It will then analyze possible changes in Israeli foreign policy following the Israeli election of February 10, 2009. The third section of the paper will examine the amount of cooperation on Iran between the Obama Administration, which has called for engagement with Iran, and Israel, which sees Iran's acquisition of nuclear weapons as an existential threat. The final section of the paper will evaluate the possible scenarios given the new governments in the United States and Israel, and a possible change in the presidency of Iran. The paper will, in part, be based on Iranian and Israeli electronic and written media, a research project that is in progress, and ongoing interaction with the Israeli academic and research community.
This paper will view Iran as a regional player which strives for hegemony in a changing region. Through that prism, the paper will analyze the tough issue of Iran's nuclear capacity. Since its secret nuclear program was revealed in late 2002, Iran has been seen by successive Israeli leaders as an increasing danger to Israel. At the same time 2009 has ushered in some new developments—the January 2009 Gaza War, internal dynamics in Iran and Israel, the coming to the fore of Turkey as a regional power, and the more assertive European stand in regard to the Middle East—all of these should have a profound influence on the research agenda when dealing with the Israeli-Iranian equation.
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