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Political Assassination, Elite Cues, and Trust in Civilian and Security Institutions
Abstract
How does the public react to political assassinations? This study investigates the impact of political assassinations on public trust in institutions using the case of Chokri Belaid's assassination in Tunisia as a quasi-experiment. Analyzing an original dataset of news articles published in national media outlets, I find that the assassination had a causal effect on media associations of the main ruling party with violence and assassination but no effect on the association with policy or security failure. Using an "Unexpected Event During Survey" design, I further examine the effect of the assassination on public trust in institutions. The results show that the assassination positively affected public trust in the cabinet, parliament, and police, while trust in the military remained unchanged. These findings support the "rally-around-the-flag" hypothesis and contradict elite cueing and accountability theories. Building on observations of media content diffused following the attack, I present a theoretical model that explains the psychological effect of elite cues on public attitudes toward institutions. To test external validity, I examine two most-different cases : the assassinations of JFK and MLK in the 1960s United States. I find that civilian actors benefited from a rally effect. However, the affect towards the police was negatively impacted, suggesting that the direction of the effect of political assassinations on public opinion depends on the contextual perception of the police.
Discipline
Political Science
Geographic Area
Tunisia
Sub Area
None