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One Step Forward, Many Steps Back: Why Settle for a New Authoritarian Social Contract in Egypt?
Abstract
The Arab Spring uprisings turned from ‘Spring of Hope’ to ‘Winter of Despair’. Egypt returned to authoritarian rule with the consolidation of Al Sisi's regime - despite the deepening economic crisis, currency devaluation and staggering inflation (reaching 40% in Aug 2023). How did these rapid economic and political changes in Egypt affect people living in poverty? This paper seeks to address this main research question by adopting a grounded approach to articulate people’s voices, explore their failed aspirations, and examine their changing relationship with the state. This paper argues that the heavy-handed nature of Sisi’s regime led to an even more authoritarian social contract whereby people are forced to forgo their socioeconomic and political rights in return for political stability. The paper questions the sustainability of such a social contract as it fails to address the growing ‘revolution of rising expectations’ – which inevitably leads to political instability on the long-run. The paper critically examines key features of Sisi’s ‘New Republic’ to explain how it controls social, political, and even digital spaces for public mobilisation. Therefore, despite the growing public frustration and deepening structural inequalities, people are unable to mobilise over socio-economic or political grievances – thus settling for this new social contract that trades off their socio-economic and civil rights for political stability. The paper draws on an empirical longitudinal study conducted in two deprived communities in Egypt: rural villages in Menia and Manshiet Nasser, an urban squatter area in Cairo between 2006 and 2016. The study tracks the same individuals (n=124) over a 10-year period and articulates their voices through a qualitative wellbeing questionnaire. The questionnaire aims to identify the changes in their wellbeing priorities, aspirations, and problems over time. It also directly articulates their views on the 2011 and 2013 uprisings and examines the perceived impact of these uprisings on the respondents’ economic and social wellbeing. The study reveals that – despite the growing dissatisfaction with Al Sisi’s regime – people are reluctant to call for or engage in different forms of popular contestation because they tend to blame the popular uprisings and their resulting political instability – rather than the regime - for their deepening economic suffering! Through its ‘New Republic’ rhetoric, the regime propagates a new authoritarian social contract. Why and how people settle for this social contract and for how much longer – are key questions this paper answers.
Discipline
Anthropology
Geographic Area
Egypt
Sub Area
None