Abstract
As the Arab revolutions unfold, struggle between the forces of status quo and change has become ever clearer. As all countries have been caught off guard by the Arab Spring, responses by Turkey and Israel have proven to be distinctly different and opposed to one another’s outlook. While Israel has been preoccupied with maintaining the status quo as required by its security-centered vision of the region, Turkey has endorsed and supported change and took the side of democracy. Once very close allies, the two countries came to head as a result of this basic conflict in how they see the future of the Middle East. Israel is not alone in its desire for the continuation of the autocratic regimes. Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia and Bahrain have tried very hard to cling to their authoritarian regimes. For strategic reasons, Iran has backed the Assad regime in Syria. Turkey, however, has ended its efforts to achieve a peaceful transition in Syria and hailed people’s movements in North Africa. Although the ultimate fate of the Arab revolutions remains unclear, Turkey is pursuing policies emanating from its strategic judgment that the future of the region lies with peoples’ movements and democracy. Israel, on the other hand, seems to consider the recent upheavals not as significant and consequential. As long as the regional politics can guarantee its narrow definition of its own security, Israel will not hesitate to invest in the maintenance and continuation of authoritarian regimes in the Middle East. Which vision will win at the end can only be judged in the long run but the current breakdown in bilateral relations between Turkey and Israel needs to be placed within the context of competing visions for the New Middle East. This paper will trace the roots, evolution and the future implications of these two competing visions on the democracy wave triggered by the Arab Spring.
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