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Huntington's "Demonstration Effect" and the Middle East: Social Media as Democracy or as a Safety Valve?
Abstract
In The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century (1991), Samuel Huntington argued that the world was on the verge of the third democratic transition, one that would substantially increase the number of stable and healthy democratically governed nation-states. A crucial part of Huntington's argument for the emergence of this third wave relied on the "demonstration effect," or the idea that modern communications technologies allowed for effective democratic protests in one country to be visible and modeled in other countries where fermenting popular discontent needed a spark to turn into open and organized political protest. The domino-like fall of communist rule in Eastern Europe in the direct aftermath of the fall of the Soviet Union served as compelling evidence for such a theory at the time, and Western media at the time were happy to equate the political protests in Eastern Europe with the emergence of a more democratic society. Despite the fact that, twenty years later, the state of democratic governance around the world has actually weakened since the end of the Cold War, Western media continue to portray political protests in non-Western countries as synonymous with democracy. Recent political transitions in Tunisia, Egypt and growing political protest movements in Yemen, Algeria and throughout the region offer an interesting series of case studies in understanding how Middle East countries transition towards more democratic society and governance, while at the same time offering yet again compelling evidence for Huntington's proposed demonstration effect. Yet, it is important to differentiate the emerging political protests from what, exactly, a stable democracy entails. This study historicizes the current political reform movements in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen and Algeria in the context of similar movements in Eastern Europe in the aftermath of the fall of the Soviet Union and looks at precisely how important new communications technologies, platforms and organizations are in fostering alternative political discourses and groups. Drawing from comparative and historical measures of democratic governance, this study looks at the relationship between mediated political protest events, such as those occurring in the Middle East in January-February 2011, and the state and strength of democratic society and governance, and suggests that such mediated political protests may not only weaken the state of civil society needed for a healthy democracy and work against efforts towards sustainable democratic reform.
Discipline
Political Science
Geographic Area
All Middle East
Sub Area
Media