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Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the Arab Uprisings
Abstract
Israel and Saudi Arabia have both experienced changes in their strategic environments as a result of the Arab uprisings. For both Riyadh and Jerusalem, the uprisings bring much political uncertainty. Of particular mutual concern is the threatened failure of several Arab states: Libya, Yemen, Syria, and Iraq, and the unknown direction of Egyptian regional policy. Much of this is related to the confrontation with Iran. Saudi Arabia acts as the leader of the Sunni world, poised to defend it against the Shiite heresy, while Israel is the Jewish state, home to about 45 percent of the world’s Jews. The Iranian leadership has called often for Israel’s destruction, and has been at loggerheads with the anti-Shiite Wahhabi leaders of Saudi Arabia since the Islamic Revolution of 1979. Both Israel and Saudi Arabia had relied on Mubarak’s Egypt as a linchpin in the regional effort to prevent the expansion of Iran’s sphere of influence – the “Shiite crescent” feared equally by Israel and the Sunni regimes of the Middle East. But the fall of the Mubarak regime represents a serious setback for both countries as they try to contain Iran. The failure of states invites foreign intervention. Iran is already expanding its influence in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. Should these states fail entirely, it would be a boost to Tehran. Saudi Arabia has acted to shore up its position in the wake of these developments. It has seized on the unrest in Syria to deal a double blow to Iran: it seeks to remove the pro-Iranian regime of Bashar al-Asad, thereby also undermining Syria’ support for the Iranian supported Hizballah. Closer to home, it has sent troops into Bahrain to quell the Shiite uprising there. The Arab unrest only heightens the severity of the desperation felt in Jerusalem and Riyadh about a nuclear-armed Iran. If Tehran succeeds in getting the bomb its regional influence will increase many fold. It will be able to call the shots in Lebanon, Syria, and Bahrain, and become a serious threat to the Saudi-dominated Persian Gulf energy sector. Such a development would also lead to nuclear proliferation: Saudi Arabia has already hinted that it would attempt to get the bomb should Iran do so. Should Israel decide to attack Iranian nuclear sites via Saudi airspace, it is likely that common interest will prevail, leading to a “malfunction” in Saudi air defenses.
Discipline
International Relations/Affairs
Geographic Area
Israel
Saudi Arabia
Sub Area
None