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Violent Extremism Threat Assessment in the Southern Libya Borderlands
Abstract
The Libyan borderlands, much like the broader Sahel region, are characterized by limited access to public services, weak political institutions, porous borders, multiple direct military interventions, the presence of armed groups, the proliferation of small arms and lights weapons, and meddling by regional and global powers—all of which contribute to an increased risk of violent extremism. This paper therefore seeks to better understand the dynamics of these risk factors in the southern Libya border region. It relies on quantitative surveys of people’s perceptions of factors (or drivers), actors, and values associated with violent extremism. A total of 6,852 interviews were undertaken in selected border regions of northern Chad, southern Libya, north-eastern Niger, north-western Nigeria, and western Sudan between December 2020 and July 2021. The paper tackles the issue through the lens of affected—or potentially affected—local societies, by analysing the exposure of communities in the surveyed border regions to seven drivers of violent extremism: hardship and deprivation; lack of adequate security and justice; limited access to basic services; the growing importance of ethnic or religious identities; chronic instability and insecurity; blocked political participation and the influence of non-state armed groups; and the illicit proliferation of small arms and light weapons. Furthermore, the paper examines the interviewees’ knowledge of recruitment strategies employed by a variety of armed groups in their communities, as well as their attitude towards specific violent extremist groups and associated values. By shedding light on populations’ perceptions, the paper highlights some common trends across the borderlands, and provides some granular understanding on specific challenges. Although violent extremist groups did not necessarily control territory in the areas surveyed, the analysis suggests that the situation has the potential to deteriorate quickly if decisive action is not taken to prevent large numbers of people from reaching a potential ‘tipping point’.
Discipline
Political Science
Geographic Area
Libya
Sub Area
African Studies