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The Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on the Social Contracts in Tunisia, Egypt, and Lebanon
Abstract
This paper explores the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on the social contract in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Most countries in the MENA region had quite similar social contracts after independence: authoritarian governments have claimed legitimacy on the basis of their efforts to protect citizens against internal and external threats and provide for their living through social and economic services, while political, participation, was undermined by authoritarianism. These social contracts began to change in the 1970s when MENA governments faced increasing problems to fund the “provision” part of the social contract. After the 2010/11 uprising, the social contracts developed into different directions: some governments transformed them into pure protection contracts (only security, no more provision, e.g. Egypt). Some governments made attempts to return to the old more inclusive populist contracts (e.g. Iran). And one government (Tunisia) has included “participation” into the deliverables of the state but still struggles what exactly the “provision” component should include. The Covid-19 pandemic has now emerged as the latest factor influencing the social contracts in the region. Citizens have realized that their security depends just as much on provision as it depends on protection by the government. And they know now that health services and proper government information can be as important as jobs and economic opportunities. Therefore, we raise two sets of questions: (i) How have citizens’ perceptions about the main responsibilities of the government changed? Has the focus shifted from participation and protection to provision? And has the focus within “provision” shifted towards health services and access to information? (ii) How do citizens rate the performance of their respective governments with regards to these different deliverables. To answer these questions, we use three representative telephone surveys conducted in Tunisia, Egypt and Lebanon (3500 households altogether) during the fourth quarter of 2020. The surveys include questions about citizens preferences and values regarding government deliverables. Moreover, the surveys repeated the most important questions of the Arab Barometer surveys in those countries (2018, 2019), which allows us to unpack changes of citizen perceptions over time. The paper’s findings will provide insights into citizen perceptions of the social contract in the MENA regions and provide input for governments and foreign donors for prioritizing post-Covid-19 public emergency and reconstruction spending in the MENA.
Discipline
Sociology
Geographic Area
All Middle East
Sub Area
Comparative