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Israel and the Changing Geopolitical Circumstances of the Middle East
Abstract
February 2011 will be a month marked in the annals of history and will be examined and analyzed for decades to come by scholars of Middle Eastern studies. In the 20th century, regime change occurred in the aftermath of successful coups d'etat and Muslim cleric-led protests that removed political strongmen from power, whose legitimacy, in the eyes of the people, no longer existed. In the 21st century, fueled by the organization and the frustration of the youth who are connected by global online social networks, the ouster of President Ben Ali of Tunisia and President Mubarak of Egypt signaled the collapse of the barrier of fear and the rise of a new modus operandi for political change in the Middle East. In the aftermath of these events we see that the rules of the game have been changed. Consequently, the parties and individuals that manage to fill the power vacuums in the coming months will be more inward looking and less concerned with foreign policy. They will learn from the mistakes of their predecessors and, thus, the "Arab street" and its pulse and rhythm, will be much more influential, and possibly even dictate the decision making of Middle Eastern leaders. In the months following the uprisings, more of the same events and tactics will be used to defy status quo, but there will be many more question marks and few answers. Moreover, in light of these events, it has become clear that America's role in the Middle East is not what it used to be. Future leaders of the Middle East may think twice before making an alliance with the United States either for reasons of mistrust or due to the unpopular reputation the United States has in many Middle Eastern countries. Of course, this bears implications for Israel, whose foreign policy and security has been tied with that of the United States for decades. It is also very likely that as each state traverses through revolution, immediate transition will not lead to democracy and the region will witness much suffering and instability. Perhaps it is time for Israel to take the initiative and make serious diplomatic gestures to its neighbors and the international community as well.
Discipline
International Relations/Affairs
Geographic Area
Israel
Sub Area
19th-21st Centuries