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Military-Society Relations in the Middle East and North Africa: Assessing the Drivers of Public Trust
Abstract
According to public opinion surveys from around the world, the military is one of the most trusted national institutions in both democratic and non-democratic countries, exceeding the levels of confidence accorded by citizens to civilian government, elected officials, and the news media. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is no exception to this cross-country pattern. Data from the 2022 Arab Barometer survey show that around 70 percent of surveyed citizens in eleven MENA countries trusted the armed forces a great deal or quite a lot. This finding is especially striking in a region where the armed forces have a history of repression and corruption, undermining democratic transitions, organizing coups, and intervening in affairs of state. Yet, despite a wealth of research examining the drivers of general institutional trust in democratic contexts, fewer works have broached the topic of trust in the military, and fewer still have done so in non-democratic contexts. This article seeks to address this gap by investigating the factors driving trust in the military across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), an empirical puzzle yet to be solved by extant literature. We first critically review the political science, sociology, and psychology works on support for the military and militarism. We then select relevant variables that measure well-being, political ideology, and trust in other institutions that predominate the literature on institutional trust in non-democracies. Drawing on this framework, we formulate a set of hypotheses that we test using nationally representative data from the Arab Barometer Survey in nine MENA countries in 2018-2019 using a panel data methodology. The data collection timing coincides with the so-called Arab Spring 2.0 protests, which allows us to examine trust in the military and assess the variation in military responses in different contentious and country contexts. We find a positive correlation between trust in the army and being male, older, and conservative, as well as feeling safe, supporting democracy, and trusting various political and security institutions. In contrast, level of education, income bracket, economic security, and an Islamist orientation are negatively correlated with trust in the military. This study contributes to a deeper understanding of institutional dynamics in non-democratic contexts, informing broader discussions on political stability and state-society relations in the MENA region. Furthermore, it provides nuanced insights into public perceptions of state institutions, shedding light on the evolving nature of civil-military relations across the Middle East and North Africa.
Discipline
Political Science
Geographic Area
Algeria
Egypt
Iraq
Jordan
Lebanon
Libya
Morocco
Palestine
Sudan
Tunisia
Yemen
Sub Area
None