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Traits, Competencies or Policy Signals? Candidate Identity and Electability in Tunisian, Libyan, Egyptian and Jordanian Elections
Abstract by Dr. Lindsay J. Benstead
Coauthors: Ellen Lust
On Session 136  (Population-Based Survey Experiments in the Middle East)

On Monday, November 23 at 2:30 pm

2015 Annual Meeting

Abstract
Gender is a hot button issue, particularly after the Arab spring, when Islamist parties achieved electoral successes and parliamentary gender quotas were adopted in many countries in the region. At the same time, little is known about how candidate gender and other intersecting identities—religion, tribe, and age—affect electability. Using data from four original survey experiments conducted among 2400 Tunisians, 1200 Libyans, 1600 Egyptians, and 1500 Jordanians between 2012 and 2014, this paper tests competing hypotheses drawn from cultural, economic modernization, and role congruity theories to understand whether and why stereotyped traits, competencies, policy signals—and expectations of wasta—affect support for candidates. Respondents were presented at random with a candidate photo and asked how likely they would be to vote for him or her. To tease out the mechanisms explaining candidate electability, the study asks respondents to judge the candidates’ traits (e.g. decisive, emotional), competencies (e.g. improve education, fight terrorism), policy positions (e.g. supports women’s rights, the role of religion), and ability to provide clientelism. Overall gender-based biases were strongest in Libya and smallest in Tunisia, due to historical differences in women’s presence in the labor force and politics. Across the four countries, the analysis found weak support for cultural and economic modernization theories and strong support for role congruity theory. The candidate who looks most similar to leaders of the past—generally a secular appearing male, and of higher socioeconomic status—is equally popular across all segments of the population. The electability of under-represented candidates depends on stereotypes about their traits and competencies, as well as voters’ expectations of policy and clientelistic provision. Women are more electable among voters who support liberal gender policies, but less popular among those who see female politicians as lacking stereotypically male traits (e.g. decisiveness). The results have implications for understanding the disadvantages women and other marginalized groups face at the polls and the ways gender quotas and electoral strategies may help level the playing field.
Discipline
Political Science
Geographic Area
All Middle East
Sub Area
Identity/Representation