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Root Causes of the Gezi Movement: Changing Macropartisanship Patterns and Electoral Geography in Turkey
Abstract
The Gezi movement has caught the attention of many national and international observers and has become a focal point of hot debates about Turkey’s standing on human rights, press freedom, and democratic consolidation. On May 28, 2013, outrage over plans to replace a park in Istanbul’s Taksim Square with a shopping mall has become a national spectacle shortly sparking anger over policies of the Justice and Development Party (AKP). But what are the root causes of the Gezi Movement? This research intends to provide answers to this question by analyzing changing macropartisanship patterns in Turkey. Considering the 2002 election as a “critical election” that brought the AKP into the limelight of Turkish politics as a hegemony-aspiring party, this article integrates the theories of social cleavages with the techniques of electoral geography. In light of all national elections in Turkey since 2002, spatial regressions based on an original province-level dataset show that religious and ethnic cleavages are pivotal to determine the support levels of major parties, after controlling for socioeconomic and demographic factors. Especially, ideological polarization over religious cleavages between the AKP and opposition parties, namely the secular Republican People’s Party (CHP) and pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) and the spatial dependence of neighboring provinces have brought about a snowballing effect, which is behind the social movements in Turkey, including the Gezi movement. This study proves that the social divisions investigated and the populations these divisions are supposed to represent can only be understood through grasping the local dynamics and interactions within which they operate. Of course, these cleavages do not automatically turn into social outbursts. Consolidated democracies find ways to settle down grievances peacefully through institutionalized means. They also use liberal democratic mechanisms to prevent the “tyranny of the majority,” which helps alleviating perceived existential threats by different social groups. The increasing authoritarian tendencies of the AKP rule, coupled with the constant decline of settlement and cohabitation mechanisms, paved the way to the strong expression of deep seated cleavages in the summer of 2013.
Discipline
Political Science
Geographic Area
Turkey
Sub Area
None