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The 2009 Provincial Elections in Iraq: Implications for Theories of Democratic Transitions in Ethnically Divided Societies
Abstract
This paper examines the implications of the January 2009 Provincial Elections in Iraq for theories of democratic transitions in ethnically divided societies. The results point to an electorate more concerned with the ability of candidates to deliver essential services than with their ability to articulate religious and ethnic symbols. While the elections do not suggest Iraqis have transcended the problems of sectarian violence and political instability, they do indicate that voters are far more sophisticated and discerning in making political choices in post-conflict and post-authoritarian settings than recognized by recent theories of democratic transitions in ethnically divided societies. This paper explores those factors that led large numbers of voters to reject sectarian political parties and to choose instead "service based," secular parties that are able to transcend ethnic and confessional boundaries in mobilizing political support. These factors include the rejection of the widespread violence and criminal activity associated with sectarian parties and "sectarian entrepreneurs," the decline rather than improvement in the lives of Iraqis in areas controlled by sectarian based parties, and the ability of the state to assert its authority in areas formally controlled by sectarian militias. Thus, support for sectarianism is not seen in this paper as an inherent quality of ethnically diverse societies. Rather it is viewed as politically and socially contingent, namely linked to the level of personal security, employment opportunity, and state provided services that citizens either enjoy or lack in a particular geographical region of a country.
Discipline
Political Science
Geographic Area
Iraq
Sub Area
State Formation