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The Determinants of Voting Behavior in the 2019 Tunisian Elections
Abstract
This paper studies the relationship between political cleavages and voting behavior during the 2019 Tunisian elections. Two main strands can be identified from the literature on political cleavages. Scholars from the first strand of literature argue that parties’ political space is structured along four main societal cleavages, also known the “classic cleavages.” The four cleavages are: center/periphery, religious, urban/rural, and owner/worker (Lipset & Rokkan, 1967; Lijphart, 1979). Proponents of the second strand of literature argue that class and religion are no longer good predictors of voting behavior. Instead, they identify a “new politics” cleavage or what they call “value-based cleavage” (Clarke et al., 2004; Inglehart, 1977, 1990). As a result of secularization and globalization processes, significant societal changes have caused a shift in people’s values, therefore, producing new structural divides within society. This paper tests whether the traditional social and religious cleavages are better predictors of ordinary Tunisian citizens’ electoral choices than the value-based cleavage. Using face-to-face representative survey data collected right after the 2019 elections, I examine the predictive power of voting behavior about the traditional cleavages versus the value-based cleavage in Tunisia.
Discipline
Political Science
Geographic Area
Tunisia
Sub Area
None