Ever since the eruption of the social and political volcano in several Arab countries, the region has been characterized by its instability. Egypt went through two “revolutions,” and currently the regime’s legitimacy is at stake. The overthrow of the first democratically elected Muslim Brothers president following a military coup supported by large segments of Egyptian society casts doubts on the future of Egypt as a stable country. President ‘Abd al-Fattah al-Sisi’s declaration of war against terrorism conducted by Islamic Jihadists within Egypt and in the Sinai Peninsula requires permission from Israel to allow the entry into Sinai of a large number of ground forces as well as naval and air forces, possibly more than ever before. The outcome of this war may determine the future of the al-Sisi’s regime. The current right-wing Israeli government, motivated by strategic considerations, has hitherto supported Egypt’s war efforts by allowing ad hoc entries of Egyptian forces into Sinai. Will the elections of 17th March in Israel have any impact upon its relations with Egypt? The strategic ties between the two countries have improved considerably since the Israeli disengagement from Gaza. At present, both the Israeli government and Egypt’s regime boycott Hamas and treat him as a terrorist organization. The contemporary process of amelioration of Israeli-Egyptian economic relations (in the fields of QIZ, gas, agriculture, etc.) has continued.
Another issue which might be relevant for our discussion is the current process of rapprochement between Egypt and Russia. Russia under Putin has shown great interest in the Middle East. She is currently involved in Syrian affairs, supporting the Assad Alawite regime. The Russian backing is prompted by a number of strategic calculations and interests. These include Russia’s naval and military presence in the Tartus port in Syria, which may serve as a counterweight to the extension of NATO eastward and the show of force of the US Sixth Fleet in the Mediterranean. In this context, are we witnessing a revival of Cold War policies and strategies? If so, can it have any impact upon the Israel-Egyptian strategic peace?
International Relations/Affairs