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Energeopolitics of Iran - Old rivalries, new prospects?
Abstract
This paper analyses existing policies and policy challenges of natural gas exports by contextualizing them with historical, political and economic factors. The recent changes in the industry were buttressed by lifting the sanctions in 2016 that theoretically may propose a new, favorable environment for international investments in Iran and can lead to higher output and increasing exports of gas. In this respect, my aim is to analyze the economic and geopolitical opportunities offered by the expansion of Iranian gas industry in the post-sanctions era. For the analysis of the situation, I use production data of natural gas from the potentially rival countries of Iran as well as data on the prospects of consumption of hydrocarbons from the neighboring countries. This method helps identify the potential routes of gas exports of Iran by relying on the basic tenet of supply and demand. The amount of investment needed for creating new pipeline connections is a question to be considered as well. Beyond economic feasibility, however, lies the field of political feasibility of these export options, a factor that complicates the issue. My main statement is that the lifting of sanctions did not change the setup of the energeopolitical rivalries around Iran, on the contrary, it increased the existing tensions in the region. In order to understand Iran’s geopolitical environment that influences the exports of gas, an analysis of geopolitical factors (growing Chinese consumption, the role of shale gas) and interests of the parties involved is required. Considering the recent domestic prospects in the Iranian hydrocarbon sector, one should keep only the lower expectations concerning the expected production upsurge: external market tendencies (low oil price, oversupply in the oil and gas markets) strengthen the competition among producers of natural gas; most of them being in the proximity of Iran (Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Russia, Azerbaijan, Qatar) and aiming at the same markets. However, there is a growth potential in the gas sector in Iran. According to certain estimations, the country will be able to export around 25 bcm gas within five years. The potential directions can be China, Pakistan and India as well as Turkey and Europe. Nevertheless, this amount will not be enough to meet the requirements of all three directions, still, the Iranian plan to reconnect its hydrocarbon industry to the global energy market will undoubtedly have a massive effect on the existing regional and global “energeopolitical” dynamics.
Discipline
Political Science
Geographic Area
Iran
Sub Area
Energy Studies