Abstract
More than four million Iraqis have been displaced, either internally as IDPs or externally as refugees. Most fled their communities since the US invasion in 2003. While the Iraqi and US governments, policy-makers in the region, and humanitarian actors assume that most will return to Iraq in the near future, displaced Iraqis themselves are much more cautious about prospects for going home. This paper analyzes the pressures for the return of Iraqis and assesses potential positive and negative consequences of large-scale return movements. Particular attention is devoted to the potential impact of returns on Iraqi identity, security, development and political life. The paper argues that the way in which returns are handled will affect not only individual Iraqis and the communities to which they return, but also the international humanitarian community. The stakes are particularly high for the United Nations which has an opportunity to restore its tarnished reputation in Iraq through a well-managed return program. The paper outlines various return scenarios and concludes with recommendations for policy-makers and humanitarian agencies. The paper is based on research carried out in the region as well as interviews with policy-makers in the United Nations, non-governmental organizations and the US government.
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