MESA Banner
The Impact of Changing Oil Market Dynamics on the GCC States: A Regional and International Assessment
Abstract
The years between 2002 and 2008 witnessed a steady increase in the price of oil, which reached US$147.27 in July 2008. This was due in large part to increases in global demand, cost of investment and in the vulnerability of supply due to the geopolitics of the major oil-producing regions, and to the emergence of oil as a financial asset traded as 'paper barrels' on the futures market. After sinking to US$35 per barrel in March 2009, the price of oil has already risen to above US$70 per barrel since the global economy began to recover. Whilst increased oil prices were welcomed by producers, the volatility of the market was not. For major oil consumers, energy security has raced to the top of national security agendas aimed at reducing consumers' dependence on oil generally and oil imports in particular. The oil dependent transport sector became the primary target, with fuel efficiency, biofuels, hybrids and electric cars now part of the global discourse. In the medium to long term, the transformation of land transportation will have a profound impact on the economies of the oil-producing states of the Gulf, which derive the majority of their GDP from oil revenue. Further, whilst a 'post-oil world' is probably many decades away, GCC states themselves need to develop strategies to manage the growth of their own fossil-fuel consumption as the region is expected to account for 20% of the growth in oil demand over the next two decades (IEA, 2008). Accordingly, this paper will analyse the nature and impact of changes in the oil market on the GCC states from both a regional and international perspective. Its framework will be driven by the following questions arising from the increased price and volatility of the global oil market: 1) what have been the responses to these changes by consumers (both regionally and internationally); 2) what impact have changes in oil-consumer behaviour had on the GCC states in the short-term, and what impact might they have in the medium to longer term; and 3) what policies might the GCC states pursue in the future in order to manage the potential impact of a 'post-oil world' and in doing so, to promote socio-economic development.
Discipline
International Relations/Affairs
Geographic Area
Gulf
Sub Area
Energy Studies