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Remittance Outflows: The New Dimension of the Structural Change in the Source of Labor in the GCC
Abstract
This paper gives an overview of the movement of people and money in the GCC countries. People are attracted to the Gulf region because of its relative stability and massive natural resources supply that made it home to some of the highest standards of living in the world. Historically, the demand of foreign labor was mostly met from neighbouring Arab countries. This trend continued until 1991 when after the Gulf War there has been a structural change in the demand of foreign workers. GCC countries’ preference switched from Arab foreign workers to labor from South Asia. While the literature on migration has documented this change, this paper adds the remittances dimension. This change in labor preference is clearly evident in the remittance outflows and inflows in MENA. Remittance outflows from MENA (mainly the Gulf) matched remittance inflows from 1970 to 1991. After 1991, remittance outflows maintained their upward trend while inflows decreased and never recovered enough to keep up with the outflows. Since 1991, the money that used to be remitted from the GCC to MENA labor exporting countries is being sent now to South Asian countries. The paper examines the potential consequences of this modification in the source of foreign labor by focusing on the monetary flows aspect. The literature has examined this phenomenon by mainly focusing on the social (composition of labor and female share) and political (relationship with Arab neighbours) context. Remittance flows recently have been a source of concern for GCC countries because they represent large money leakages in the economy that could have been otherwise invested in the local economy. For instance, in 2007, the mean size of official remittances was close to 26% of domestic investments in the Gulf; with values ranging from a low of 17% in Kuwait to a staggering 51% in Oman. The paper argues that while the shift from Arab to Asian workers has been motivated by several factors, future GCC governments’ labor policies need to take remittance outflows into consideration. The policy followed by the GCC countries since the early 1990s has created a major shift in the direction of monetary flows from MENA to South Asia. For that matter, to assess the impact of the policy of shifting the source of foreign labor, policy makers should add remittances to the mix. In light of the latest political unrest in the MENA region, this topic is of great significance.
Discipline
Economics
Geographic Area
Gulf
Sub Area
Middle East/Near East Studies