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New Geopolitical Dynamics and External Rivalries in the Maghreb
Abstract
Since their independence from colonial rule, the five Maghreb states have interacted bilaterally with foreign powers rather than as an integrated region. Despite the 1989 foundation of the Arab Maghreb Union, they have pursued discrete foreign policies that reflect their anticolonial struggle and ideological choices they made following, or prior to, their independence. While Algeria and Libya chose ostensibly nonalignment as the foundation of their foreign policy, Mauritania, Morocco, and Tunisia remained attached to the West. Since 2011, all have faced numerous political and socioeconomic challenges which resulted in complicated geopolitical constraints. Thus, even if they wished to reduce their dependency, primarily on the EU, their pressing financial constraints and security imperatives prevented any change of direction or transgression of the existing patterns of their foreign policies. Structure prevailed over agency. Now, the region is diversifying away from subordinate relations with Europe and the US. The pandemic and other factors have accelerated these trends and created new geopolitical dynamics as outside powers showed increased interest. While the United States neglected the Maghreb, Russia, China, the Gulf countries, and Turkey have increased their presence. China has extended its Maritime Silk Road, which requires access to ports, and deepened its footprint. Russia has returned in search of new opportunities in arms, agriculture, and infrastructure, including access to bases, positioning it within NATO’s southern flank. The competition among the GCC states (Qatar v. UAE), on the one hand, and the rivalry between Saudi Arabia/UAE/Egypt, Turkey, and Israel (since normalization with Morocco), on the other, have spilled over not only into Libya but the entire Maghreb. Applying and problematizing neorealist theory, the paper utilizes new work on rivalry, especially in MENA (Mansour and Thompson, 2020). Additionally, the paper draws on decades of primary research on Maghreb foreign policies and five dozen new interviews with policymakers. The paper will look at the new geopolitical dynamics and explain how domestic challenges have compelled the Maghreb regimes to seek the support of outside powers to offset internal instability and regional rivalries. It will provide a thorough analysis of the drivers and interests of external powers in the region. It will address whether the current geopolitical dynamics will induce new political alliances. For example, is it conceivable that Algeria breaks its long-standing nonalignment policy and enters a quasi-alliance with Russia and China to face off a seeming new axis of the US, Morocco, Israel, and the UAE?
Discipline
International Relations/Affairs
Geographic Area
Maghreb
Sub Area
Maghreb Studies